The era of black-box econometric forecasts is thankfully over. Strategically relevant analysis gives capital allocators systematic, logical explanations about their world, orientates them in the present, and arms them with the appropriate lessons from the past to guide them into the future.
We apply Austrian economic theory in our analysis and maintain an open mind to logically sound theoretical explanations of economic and market phenomena.
This approach stands in stark contrast to the synthetic and impossible constructs that make up the patchwork of ideas of the “neoclassical consensus” which aim to subordinate complex human action to mathematical equations and statistical aggregates. These foundational differences result in very different conclusions about the nature of market demand itself, the causes and cures of recessions, the nature of capital and interest, the efficacy (or lack thereof) of fiscal and monetary policy, the price system, inflation, economic growth, and much else.
But if one could crystallise what sets our approach to macro apart from the orthodoxy, it would be this:
‘Say’s Law of Markets’ is valid – recessions are not caused by a “deficiency of demand” but by natural market readjustments after policy-induced systemic artificial ‘booms’.
We use best-in-class analytical software, drawing on an enormous global macroeconomic and market dataset. But data is servant, not master. As we like to say, data never speaks for itself – it is always spoken for. Economic and market data does not capture universal, forecastable absolutes, but complex patterns of aggregated, fluid human action instead.
We believe that reliance on econometric forecast techniques is profoundly misguided.
To us, being truly empirical means recognising data’s many limitations and inconsistencies, and interpreting a broad range of credible qualitative and quantitative information through our consistent theoretical framework. This is how we translate an understanding of the present into credible strategic insights.
Heretical ideas and uncommon analytical conclusions need to be motivated clearly and credibly to become actionable client strategies. We place tremendous care in the written and verbal communication of our views (reports and presentations). Yet clarity need not sacrifice analytical heart and soul. We strive to make our material and presentations engaging, inspiring and compelling.
Our old adage is: boring to write is boring to read.
We follow the analytical trail that is both relevant to our clients and inspires us intellectually. We don’t produce high-frequency analysis, but rather thorough, deep-dive analysis of key macro and market dynamics in our focus markets with clear strategic conclusions.
Our products and services include a client portal for our flagship macro research, asset allocation advisory, private podcasts covering key themes, and macro presentation sessions with clients. We cover credit and asset cycle dynamics, major asset classes, interest rates, FX strategy, and commodity cycles.
For more information on our approach to strategic macro analysis and our products and services, contact us: +2721-2011-393
Managing director and head of research.
Director. Economist and macro advisor, managing director of ETM Capital, and co-founder of the ETM Group.
Director & Business Development. Managing director and co-founder of the ETM Group.